عاجل بالفيديو صدام حسين حي يرزق وهو الأن في العراق !









One of the characteristics of Actuaries is to be able to look at the past and predict the
future using statistical features. In auto insurance companies, Actuaries predict how likely it is
for a particular driver to file a claim and the cost related to the claim. Based on the prediction of
the cost, expenses and profit, the company charges a well calculated premium to the drivers.



إضغط هنا لمشاهد الفيديو قبل الحذف


There was a time when just a few data points about the driver like age, driving history and
location of driving was enough for an auto insurance company to underwrite an auto insurance
policy.





But in this era of competitiveness among insurance companies, more and more factors are
taken into consideration in order to provide the most accurate premiums pinpointing the most
precise risk factors.
The main purpose of this project is to show how various factors affect prices of auto
insurance. The factors we considered are age, gender and the location of driving. There are
numerous other factors that insurers look at as well; for example past driving record, marital
status, credit score and even school grades of teenage drivers during the process of pricing an
individual’s insurance. In this project, a comprehensive analysis was performed on car crash
patterns by age groups, gender and location of the car crash, in order to show the impact of these
factors on the insurance rates.
From the analysis we concluded that young drivers in general are most likely to get into a
car crash which helps to explain their high premium rates. So we decided to add low-cost life
insurance to the auto insurance for young drivers. This insurance product is designed for the
companies that they could potentially offer to its drivers. More than 30% of the population in the
United States has no life insurance.

The fatal car crash data we used for this project is provided by National Highway Traffic





Safety Administration. Another useful source was the Federal Highway Administration website,
where we acquired the data on the total number of licensed drivers in the United States. We saw
data on three main type of crashes: property damage crashes, injury related crashes, and fatal car
crashes. Fatal car crash leaves the most damage in people’s lives, emotionally and financially.
Our project was based solely on fatal car crashes. We used Microsoft Excel as a tool for analysis
of data. Data from year 1994 – 2011 was available to us. 2012 is still too recent, and therefore
not available. Premium rates of Liberty Mutual were used in order to compare the results from
our project.
While we just looked into fatal car crashes for our project, insurance companies look at
all kind of crashes and all accidents for quoting purposes. Let’s begin by looking into the first
significant factor – namely age of a driver. For the most part, age determines the experience level
of a driver, risk factors and driving abilities.

The legal driving age in most states is 16 and most teenagers get their first drivers license
between the age of 16 and 18. Thus age of a driver is usually highly correlated to years of driving
experience. The following graph shows the correlation between age (our proxy for experience)
and the rate of fatal car crashes. Drivers with the least experience have the most fatal crashes
while more experienced drivers in their 50’s and 60’s have the least fatal crash rates. As the
driver gets significantly older; over the age of 75, the fatal crash rate tends to rise. We can see
that these older driver get into a fatal car accident almost as often as very young drivers (the 20
year olds).
The analysis

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